US Election 2024: Poll Indicates Trump Has 52% Chance of Victory
A recent poll from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill shows that Republican candidate Donald Trump has gained a 52% chance of winning the presidency, surpassing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who stands at 42%. Previously, Harris had maintained a lead of 54-56% since late August, but recent shifts in polling averages from key battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan indicate a tightening race. Trump also leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris remains ahead only in Pennsylvania among the seven critical swing states. The presidential election is set for November 5, 2024, with early voting already underway in several states.
In a recent update from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has surpassed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the election forecast for the first time this cycle, showing a 52% chance of winning the presidency compared to Harris’s 42%.
Since late August, the forecasting model had consistently favored Harris, who maintained a lead of around 54-56%, while Trump hovered between 44-46%. However, in early October, the gap started to narrow, bringing the candidates closer together.
This change in forecast corresponds with Trump’s rising polling averages in crucial battleground states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, which had previously leaned toward Harris. Trump also holds a slight advantage in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Among the seven key swing states for 2024, Pennsylvania remains the only state where Harris still holds a lead, as reported by The Hill.
The US presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, with early voting already underway in states like Georgia, California, North Carolina, Virginia, and Alabama. The elected candidate will take office for a four-year term starting from the inauguration on January 20, 2025.
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