Can U.S.-Russia Talks in Saudi Arabia Secure Peace in Ukraine?

U.S. and Russian officials meet in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a Black Sea ceasefire, aiming to ease Ukraine tensions amid ongoing drone attacks.

A Diplomatic Dance in the Desert: U.S. and Russia Seek Common Ground

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, has become an unlikely stage for a high-stakes diplomatic showdown. On Monday, March 24, 2025, U.S. and Russian officials gathered in the Saudi capital to hammer out a potential maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, a move aimed at dialing back the relentless three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The talks follow a flurry of drone attacks that underscore the war’s unyielding brutality—Russia pummeled Kyiv with its third consecutive overnight assault, while Ukraine retaliated with a barrage of 227 drones, igniting a massive blaze at a Russian oil depot. Against this backdrop of fire and fury, the question looms: can these negotiations deliver even a sliver of peace?

The White House, under President Donald Trump’s renewed leadership, has thrown its weight behind ending the war that erupted in February 2022. Last week, Trump held separate calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, signaling an intensified push for resolution. Now, with Saudi Arabia as the neutral host, the U.S. is betting on a narrow but symbolic win: a Black Sea truce to safeguard shipping lanes. Yet, as drones light up the skies and skepticism simmers in European capitals, the path to peace feels more like a tightrope than a runway.

Drone Wars and Desert Talks: The Latest Escalation

The timing of the Riyadh talks couldn’t be more telling. Just hours before negotiators sat down, Russia unleashed a fresh wave of airstrikes on Kyiv, wounding at least one civilian and shattering homes in the surrounding region. Ukraine, undeterred, struck back with a drone offensive that left firefighters in Russia’s Krasnodar region battling a five-day inferno at a targeted oil depot. Moscow claims it downed 227 Ukrainian drones in the past 24 hours—a staggering figure that highlights the war’s technological ferocity.

This tit-for-tat violence frames the Saudi discussions in stark relief. The U.S. team, led by Andrew Peek of the National Security Council and Michael Anton from the State Department, arrived with a clear mandate: secure a maritime ceasefire to stabilize the Black Sea. Russia’s delegation, featuring seasoned diplomat Grigory Karasin and security adviser Sergei Beseda, countered with cautious optimism. After nearly three hours of talks, Karasin told Interfax the discussions were “creative,” hinting at progress on thorny bilateral “irritants.” But with bombs still falling, creativity alone may not suffice.

For Ukraine, the stakes are existential. The Black Sea has been a lifeline, enabling the export of grain and iron ore from Odesa’s ports at near pre-war levels despite relentless Russian pressure. Yet the port of Mykolaiv remains choked off, a casualty of Moscow’s naval dominance. Zelenskiy, addressing EU leaders earlier this month, pleaded for a broader truce—one that silences the skies as well as the seas. His vision, however, clashes with Russia’s narrower focus on navigation safety, as articulated by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Trump’s Peace Play: A Bold Vision or a Risky Gamble?

Donald Trump’s fingerprints are all over this diplomatic push. Since reclaiming the presidency, he’s made ending the Ukraine war a cornerstone of his agenda, touting his rapport with Putin as a potential game-changer. “I’m pleased with how things are going,” Trump said recently, praising the Russian leader’s engagement. His optimism contrasts sharply with the doubts echoing across Europe, where leaders fear Putin’s “maximalist” demands—abandoning NATO aspirations and ceding four Ukrainian regions—signal a refusal to compromise.

The Riyadh talks zero in on the Black Sea, a less volatile theater than Ukraine’s eastern frontlines, where Russian troops inch forward and Ukrainian forces cling to slivers of captured territory. A 2022 grain deal, brokered by Turkey and the UN, once eased tensions here, but it collapsed amid mutual recriminations. Peskov, reflecting on that failure, stressed that any new agreement must deliver for Moscow. The U.S. sees a maritime truce as a stepping stone—practical, achievable, and a signal of good faith. Yet, it’s a far cry from the 30-day ceasefire Washington floated earlier this month, a proposal Russia has yet to embrace fully.

National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, appearing on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, offered a glimpse into the broader agenda. Beyond the Black Sea, negotiators are tackling “verification measures” and “confidence-building steps,” like returning Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. Waltz confirmed that U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian teams are housed in the same Riyadh facility, raising hopes of shuttle diplomacy. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov’s arrival on Monday suggests Kyiv won’t be sidelined entirely, even if its voice in these initial talks remains indirect.

Europe Watches Warily: A Continent on Edge

Across the Atlantic, Europe’s powerhouses—Germany, France, and the UK—eye the Saudi talks with a mix of hope and trepidation. Putin’s insistence on Ukraine withdrawing from contested regions and forsaking NATO membership strikes many as a non-starter. “His demands haven’t budged since 2022,” a senior European diplomat told Reuters, speaking anonymously. “This feels more like theater than negotiation.” The fear is palpable: a U.S.-Russia deal could freeze the conflict, leaving Ukraine vulnerable and Europe’s security architecture in tatters.

Statistics paint a grim picture. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia controls roughly 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, annexed in 2014. Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kursk, launched last summer, has faltered, with thousands of troops now encircled. Meanwhile, the UN reports over 10,000 civilian deaths since the war began, a toll that grows with each drone strike. For European leaders, any peace that doesn’t address these realities risks being a hollow victory.

Zelenskiy, too, has his reservations. While he’s signaled openness to a limited truce, he insists on formal guarantees—something Russia has dismissed. The Kremlin claims it’s honoring a 30-day pause on energy infrastructure attacks, a pledge Putin made to Trump last week. Kyiv disputes this, pointing to fresh strikes on its power grid. The mistrust runs deep, threatening to unravel even modest gains in Riyadh.

The Black Sea Gambit: A Test of Will and Wisdom

Why the Black Sea? It’s a curious focal point, given the region’s relative calm compared to Ukraine’s blood-soaked east. Since 2022, Ukraine has crippled Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, sinking ships and forcing Moscow to relocate vessels from Crimea. A 2024 report by the Kyiv School of Economics estimates Ukraine inflicted over $3 billion in damage to Russia’s naval assets—a testament to Kyiv’s resilience. Yet, for all its strategic value, the Black Sea hasn’t seen the intense ground combat that defines Donbas or Kursk.

The U.S. sees this as an opportunity. A maritime ceasefire could unlock trade, ease global food prices (Ukraine exported 50 million tons of grain in 2024, per USDA data), and build momentum for tougher talks. Waltz hinted at discussing “the line of control”—a euphemism for freezing frontlines—a prospect that alarms Kyiv. For Russia, it’s a chance to reclaim leverage without conceding ground. Karasin’s upbeat tone suggests Moscow senses an opening, though Putin’s endgame remains elusive.

Experts weigh in with cautious optimism. “A Black Sea deal could be a confidence booster,” says Orysia Lutsevych of Chatham House. “But it’s a Band-Aid, not a cure. The real test is whether Putin bends on territorial claims.” For now, the talks are a delicate dance—one where every step forward risks a stumble.

Peace or Pause—What’s at Stake?

As the sun sets over Riyadh, the U.S.-Russia talks hang in a fragile balance. A Black Sea ceasefire could mark a rare breakthrough, offering Ukraine a breather and the world a glimpse of detente. Yet, with drones still buzzing and Europe on edge, it’s clear this is no final act—just a tentative first scene. Trump’s ambition to end the war is bold, but the gap between Moscow’s demands and Kyiv’s survival remains a chasm.

For readers, the takeaway is simple yet urgent: stay informed. The ripples of these negotiations will shape global security, trade, and millions of lives. Check credible updates from sources like Reuters or the BBC, and weigh the human cost behind the headlines. Peace may be on the table, but it’s far from guaranteed—leaving us all to wonder if this desert summit will forge history or merely delay the inevitable.

Source:  (Reuters)

(Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information as of March 24, 2025, and reflects reported events and expert commentary. Developments may evolve rapidly, and readers are encouraged to consult primary sources for the latest updates. The views expressed are intended to inform and engage, not to endorse any political stance.)

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