AI: A Potential Great Filter for Alien Civilizations
In a recent paper published in Acta Astronautica, I explore the idea that artificial intelligence (AI), particularly the development of artificial superintelligence (ASI), could be a significant bottleneck in the progression of civilizations, potentially explaining the Fermi Paradox. This paradox questions why, given the vastness of the universe, we have yet to detect any signs of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations.
The emergence of ASI, which surpasses human intelligence and operates autonomously, may coincide with a critical juncture in a civilization’s evolution—the transition from single-planet to multiplanetary existence. However, the rapid advancement of AI could outpace our ability to control it or responsibly explore space, leading to catastrophic consequences.
ASI’s autonomous nature poses immense challenges, including the risk of unintentional destruction. If nations relinquish control to autonomous AI systems, conflicts may escalate to unprecedented levels, potentially resulting in the downfall of both biological and AI civilizations.
I estimate that the typical lifespan of a technological civilization may be less than 100 years, indicating a narrow window for survival. This sobering realization underscores the urgent need for robust regulatory frameworks to govern AI development, particularly in military applications.
The integration of AI in military defense systems raises significant ethical concerns, as autonomous weapons could operate beyond human control, violating international law and leading to catastrophic outcomes. Despite calls for regulation, the strategic advantages AI offers may impede efforts to curb its proliferation.
Humanity stands at a pivotal moment in its technological evolution, where our actions will determine whether we flourish as an interstellar civilization or succumb to the perils of our own creations. By addressing these challenges and guiding AI development responsibly, we can ensure a future where humanity thrives alongside AI, serving as a beacon of hope for civilizations to come.
