As firelights return to Kashmir’s Leepa Valley, India and Pakistan test a fragile ceasefire. Is a new LoC conflict looming

Tensions Flare in Leepa Valley: A Hidden War on the LoC

In the quiet hamlets near Kashmir’s Leepa Valley, where borders once blurred during annual pilgrimages to the revered Treda Sharif shrine, the echoes of communal harmony have now been replaced by the crack of gunfire. The region, long caught between memories of spiritual unity and the reality of modern militarism, is once again the epicenter of cross-border tension between India and Pakistan.

Leepa Valley: A Geopolitical Flashpoint Reignites

Once a passage of peace, Leepa Valley has transformed into a flashpoint of high-altitude warfare. Nestled at 9,000 feet, this strategic corridor near Tutmari Gali has become a regular site for infiltration attempts and armed exchanges. Recent reports confirm that Indian and Pakistani forces have been trading fire, reigniting fears of a wider confrontation.

Historically, this valley has served as both a spiritual conduit and a military vantage. In the past, pilgrims moved freely to the Treda Sharif shrine, which uniquely straddled the Line of Control (LoC), symbolizing a shared spiritual heritage. But such freedoms ended in 1988 when insurgency flared across Kashmir, and Leepa Valley’s tranquility shattered.

Anatomy of a Conflict: Strategic Moves and Military Strikes

The Indian Army, in recent weeks, appears to be reassessing its approach after the deadly Pahalgam massacre. Military planners are reportedly considering targeted operations in Leepa and adjoining areas like the Neelam Valley—zones that saw India gain significant ground during the 1971 war.

One such moment of escalation occurred when Pakistani troops occupied key high-altitude posts near Kel. In response, four Indian Air Force Mirage 2000s, supported by artillery, pounded enemy positions, eliminating 28 intruders. This marked the first use of Indian air power in Kashmir since the 1999 Kargil War—a chilling reminder of how swiftly the line between skirmish and war can blur.

The Fragile Ceasefire: A Balancing Act Since 2003

The 2003 ceasefire, brokered by then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and President Pervez Musharraf, was a watershed moment. It ushered in a temporary lull in violence and gave local communities a taste of peace. But the truce has frayed over time.

Take, for instance, the story of Reshma Bi, a grandmother from Uri, who crossed into Pakistan in 2012 to reunite with her fugitive sons. Her journey exposed vulnerabilities in India’s border security and sparked a wave of defensive construction—met with retaliatory fire from the Pakistan Army.

Each response has carried the sting of old grievances. Beheadings, post raids, and mutilations on both sides have painted a gruesome portrait of unacknowledged warfare—a tit-for-tat blood feud where tactical goals often blur into symbolic retribution.

A Legacy of Shadows: War Without Headlines

Much of what unfolds along the LoC, especially in remote sectors like Leepa, remains outside mainstream media coverage. Yet these unreported skirmishes often set the tone for national security policy.

During the 1971 war, Indian troops from the 104 Infantry Brigade captured positions like Naukot and fortified Tangdhar and Leepa to pre-empt a Pakistani advance. These modest but meaningful gains were part of a broader strategy to secure Kashmir’s mountainous borders. However, several objectives were shelved once a ceasefire was declared.

Now, strategic voices in Delhi speculate that the unfinished business of 1971 could be revisited—not through a full-scale war, but calibrated tactical strikes meant to send a message and alter ground realities.

The Cost of Escalation: Terrorism and Domestic Fallout

Yet such ambitions come with risk. While pushing the LoC westward could deal a strategic blow to Pakistan, it may not solve India’s biggest concern—infiltration and insurgency. In fact, a high-profile escalation might provoke an uptick in terrorist activity within Kashmir, reversing years of progress on domestic counterinsurgency.

Experts like Lt. Gen. Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd.), a former GOC of the 15 Corps, caution that “any kinetic action across the LoC must consider the second-order effects, especially the possibility of increased radicalization and recruitment within the Valley.”

Where Do We Go From Here?

As Indian frustrations mount and the political climate hardens, the temptation to act decisively grows stronger. Yet the LoC remains a razor’s edge—where every bullet fired can ignite diplomatic crises and domestic unrest. The recent flare-ups in Leepa are a stark reminder that beneath the fog of peace lies a battlefield still very much alive.

For now, both nations walk a tightrope—juggling public pressure, strategic deterrence, and the ever-present specter of war. Whether this latest exchange remains a skirmish or spirals into something far larger will depend not only on military decisions but also on diplomatic maturity.

Disclaimer:

This article is based on publicly available information, media reports, and historical accounts. It reflects ongoing military and geopolitical developments and is intended solely for informational and journalistic purposes. The views expressed do not represent the position of any government or agency.

source :ThePrint