Iraq’s Bold Quest to Pump 6 Million Barrels of Oil Daily by 2029

Iraq aims to boost oil production to over 6 million barrels per day by 2029, leveraging exploration and a BP deal. Here’s how it plans to reshape its energy future.

Iraq’s Ambitious Oil Vision Takes Shape

In the sun-scorched deserts and bustling oil fields of Iraq, a seismic shift is brewing. The nation’s oil ministry dropped a bombshell on Sunday, March 23, 2025, announcing plans to catapult its oil production capacity to more than 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029. This audacious goal, revealed through the state news agency, signals Iraq’s intent to cement its status as a global energy titan. For a country that currently pumps around 4 million bpd, the leap represents not just an economic lifeline but a daring bet on its untapped potential.

Behind this vision stands Bassem Mohamed Khodeir, the oil ministry’s undersecretary, who painted a vivid picture of how Iraq plans to get there. Speaking with conviction, he pointed to a multi-pronged strategy: aggressive oil exploration, nationwide drilling campaigns, and a headline-grabbing partnership with British oil giant BP to breathe new life into four Kirkuk oil and gas fields. It’s a plan that’s equal parts ambition and pragmatism, one that could redefine Iraq’s role on the world stage—if it succeeds.

A Giant Awakens: Iraq’s Current Oil Landscape

To understand the magnitude of this goal, let’s step back and survey the terrain. Iraq ranks as the second-largest producer in the OPEC+ alliance, a coalition of oil-rich nations including heavyweights like Saudi Arabia and Russia. Today, its wells churn out roughly 4 million bpd, a figure that keeps the country’s economy humming—oil accounts for nearly 90% of Iraq’s revenue, after all. But that’s just the starting line. With proven reserves estimated at 145 billion barrels (and some experts whispering that the real number could be far higher), Iraq sits on a veritable goldmine of black gold.

Yet, this isn’t a story of unchecked growth. OPEC+ has been tightening the reins, slashing output by 5.85 million bpd—about 5.7% of global supply—through a series of cuts agreed upon since 2022. Iraq, a loyal member, recommitted to this pact last month, even promising an updated roadmap to offset past overproduction. The group’s next move? A gradual supply increase starting in April 2025. For Iraq, balancing these commitments while chasing a 50% production hike is like threading a needle in a sandstorm.

The BP Deal: A Game-Changer in Kirkuk

Enter BP, the British energy behemoth that’s no stranger to Iraq’s oil fields. The company inked a deal earlier this year to redevelop four fields in Kirkuk, a region steeped in oil history since the 1920s when BP and its partners first struck crude there. This isn’t just a nostalgic reunion—it’s a calculated play to unlock an estimated 9 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani told Reuters in January that the project could boost production by up to 150,000 bpd, with a gas component to boot.

The Kirkuk fields, long plagued by underinvestment and conflict, are ripe for revival. Khodeir emphasized that this partnership is a cornerstone of Iraq’s strategy, blending foreign expertise with local resources. “We’re not just drilling holes,” he hinted in his statement. “We’re building a sustainable future.” That future includes curbing gas flaring—a wasteful practice Iraq aims to end by 2028—and powering up northern refineries currently running below capacity. It’s a vision that promises jobs, energy security, and a cleaner footprint, but the clock is ticking.

Exploration and Drilling: Digging Deeper

Beyond Kirkuk, Iraq’s plan hinges on a nationwide push to tap new reserves. Khodeir’s blueprint calls for exploration rigs to fan out across the country, probing untapped basins and reviving dormant wells. It’s a Herculean task in a nation where infrastructure lags and security remains dicey. Yet, the stakes couldn’t be higher. In 2023, Iraq raked in $97.6 billion from oil, according to ministry data—a haul that could swell significantly if production climbs as planned.

Experts see potential but urge caution. “Iraq’s reserves are vast, but execution is everything,” says John Roberts, an energy analyst with decades of Middle East experience. “They’ll need billions in investment, stable governance, and a workforce ready to scale up.” A 2012 report to then-Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki once dreamed even bigger, projecting a possible 13 million bpd by 2017 under a “high production” scenario. That didn’t pan out, but it underscores the optimism—and the pitfalls—of Iraq’s oil ambitions.

For now, the focus is on incremental wins. The ministry’s drilling blitz aims to add capacity steadily, with some analysts predicting Iraq could hit 7 million bpd by 2030 if all goes smoothly. That’s a big “if,” but the momentum is palpable.

OPEC+ and the Global Balancing Act

Iraq doesn’t operate in a vacuum. As part of OPEC+, it’s tethered to a delicate dance of supply and demand. The alliance’s current cuts have propped up prices—Brent crude hovered around $75 per barrel in late March 2025, per OilPrice.com—but they’ve also capped Iraq’s output. Last September, the country pumped 3.94 million bpd, below its 4 million bpd quota, a rare show of compliance after months of overproduction grumbles from allies.

Come April, OPEC+ plans to ease those cuts, adding supply back into a market hungry for stability. Iraq’s challenge? Scaling up capacity without flooding the market and tanking prices. “It’s a tightrope,” says Ellen Wald, author of Saudi, Inc. “Iraq wants to flex its muscles, but OPEC+ will keep a firm hand on the leash.” The ministry’s pledge to compensate for past excesses suggests it’s playing the long game, banking on diplomacy to secure wiggle room for its 2029 target.

What’s at Stake for Iraq and the World

If Iraq pulls this off, the ripple effects could be profound. At home, an extra 2 million bpd could supercharge an economy still reeling from decades of war and sanctions. Oil revenue funds everything from schools to hospitals, and a 50% boost could mean billions more for a population of 43 million. Globally, it’s a wildcard in an energy landscape shifting toward renewables. OPEC forecasts oil demand hitting 112.3 million bpd by 2029, up from 102.2 million in 2023—plenty of room for Iraq’s growth, but competition is fierce.

Still, hurdles loom large. Political instability, corruption, and water shortages (crucial for oil extraction) could derail the plan. The Kurdistan region, a key producer, remains a flashpoint after a two-year export halt ended in early 2025. And then there’s the climate question: will Iraq’s oil boom find buyers as nations pivot to green energy?

“Iraq’s betting on oil as its golden ticket,” Roberts notes. “But the world’s changing fast—2029 might look very different.” The ministry exudes confidence, buoyed by BP’s muscle and a drilling spree in full swing.

The Road to 2029: A Call to Watch

Iraq’s quest to pump 6 million barrels daily by 2029 is more than a number—it’s a narrative of resilience, risk, and raw ambition. From Kirkuk’s revitalized fields to the hum of rigs across the desert, the nation is laying the groundwork for an energy renaissance. Success hinges on execution, geopolitics, and a dash of luck. For the US audience, it’s a story worth tracking: Iraq’s oil could sway gas prices, shift alliances, and test the limits of fossil fuels in a warming world.

So, keep an eye on Baghdad. Whether this gamble pays off or falters, it’s a saga that’ll shape the next decade. Want to stay ahead of the curve? Follow the rigs, the deals, and the data—because in Iraq’s oil fields, the future is being drilled one barrel at a time.

Source:  (Reuters)

(Disclaimer:  This article is based on publicly available information as of March 23, 2025, and reflects current plans and projections from Iraq’s oil ministry and related sources. Future outcomes may vary due to geopolitical, economic, or environmental factors.)

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