New simulations suggest a very slim possibility that the asteroid Apophis, also known as the “God of Chaos,” could be nudged onto a collision course with Earth before its close flyby in 2029. Although the odds of such an impact are more than one-in-a-billion, a definitive answer won’t be available for another three years.
Apophis is a peanut-shaped asteroid about 1,100 feet (340 meters) across, roughly the size of the Eiffel Tower. It’s not large enough to be classified as a “planet killer,” but it could still destroy a major city and cause significant climatic effects. Discovered in 2004 and named after the Egyptian god of chaos, Apophis will pass within 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) of Earth on April 13, 2029—closer than many of our satellites.
Initially, astronomers were concerned Apophis might hit Earth, but later observations confirmed it would safely pass by. However, large asteroids like Apophis can be pushed off course by smaller asteroids, as demonstrated by NASA’s 2022 DART mission, which successfully redirected the asteroid Dimorphos. A recent study published on August 26 in *The Planetary Science Journal* by astronomer Paul Wiegert examined this scenario and found that while an impact is extremely unlikely, it is still possible.
Wiegert’s simulations showed that the chance of an unknown asteroid hitting Apophis is less than one-in-a-million, and the odds of such a collision significantly altering Apophis’s trajectory are less than one-in-a-billion. Even if Apophis were nudged, there’s no certainty it would be directed toward Earth.
Currently, Apophis is too close to the sun to be observed, so astronomers won’t be able to update their predictions until 2027. When it reappears, they will have a clearer picture of its path leading up to 2029.
Beyond 2029, Apophis will continue making close approaches to Earth, including in 2051, 2066, and 2080. However, current models suggest it poses no significant threat for at least the next 100 years. Additional insights into Apophis’s future trajectory will come after NASA’s OSIRIS APEX spacecraft flies by the asteroid shortly after 2029.