Nine nuclear-armed nations, including the US, Russia, France, China, India, and Pakistan, have continued to modernize their nuclear arsenals, deploying new nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
### China’s Expanding Arsenal
The Swedish think-tank’s analysis revealed that China’s nuclear arsenal grew from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, with further growth expected.
Global Nuclear Modernization
SIPRI’s report stated that the nine nuclear-armed states—the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—are modernizing their arsenals, with several deploying new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023. Out of an estimated global total of 12,121 warheads in January 2024, about 9,585 are in military stockpiles ready for potential use. Of these, 3,904 are deployed with missiles and aircraft, an increase of 60 from January 2023, with the rest in central storage.
Operational Alert
“Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads are kept in high operational alert on ballistic missiles, predominantly belonging to Russia and the US, but for the first time, China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert,” the report noted.
Emerging Capabilities
India, Pakistan, and North Korea are pursuing the ability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, a capability already held by Russia, France, the UK, the US, and recently China. This technology could rapidly increase the number of deployed warheads and enhance the threat to more targets.
Dominance of Russia and the US
Russia and the US possess almost 90% of all nuclear weapons. The sizes of their military stockpiles remained relatively stable in 2023, although Russia is estimated to have deployed around 36 more warheads with operational forces than in January 2023. Transparency regarding nuclear forces has declined in both countries since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and debates around nuclear-sharing arrangements have intensified.
### India’s Nuclear Arsenal
India’s nuclear warheads were reported at 172 in January 2024, compared to Pakistan’s 170. India slightly expanded its arsenal in 2023 and continued developing new nuclear delivery systems. While Pakistan remains India’s primary focus, India is increasingly emphasizing longer-range weapons capable of reaching China. India’s nuclear weapons are assigned to a maturing triad of aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Recent moves towards missile canisterization and sea-based deterrence patrols suggest a potential shift towards mating some warheads with their launchers during peacetime.
China’s Growing Capabilities
China could potentially have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia or the US by the end of the decade, depending on force structuring. However, its nuclear warhead stockpile is expected to remain smaller than those of Russia or the US. “China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). “There are plans or significant pushes to increase nuclear forces in nearly all nuclear-armed states,” Kristensen added.
