Will a Tsunami Strike India’s West Coast?
Summary:
The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) in the northwestern Indian Ocean poses a tsunami risk to India’s west coast. A major earthquake in this region, like the 8.1-magnitude quake in 1945 that caused thousands of deaths, could trigger another tsunami. Indian researchers and international collaborations, led by INCOIS, are studying seismic activity, deep-sea sediments, and “atypical tsunamis” while enhancing monitoring systems with buoys, hazard maps, and early warning mechanisms. Despite gaps in understanding the MSZ, advancements in tsunami detection and preparedness aim to mitigate future risks.
On November 27, 1945, a powerful 8.1-magnitude earthquake in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) unleashed a deadly tsunami, claiming 13 lives in Mumbai and nearly 4,000 in Pakistan, Oman, Iran, and the UAE.The MSZ, located at the junction of the Indian, Arabian, and Eurasian plates in the northwestern Indian Ocean, remains a seismically active region where earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or above can generate tsunamis.
In 2013, a 7.7-magnitude inland earthquake in Pakistan’s Balochistan region also triggered a tsunami. Indian researchers now closely monitor the MSZ, as stress continues to accumulate, though lower-magnitude quakes help release some of this energy.
Despite this monitoring, experts acknowledge gaps in understanding the MSZ, particularly regarding landslides and mudslides caused by earthquakes. The lack of historical earthquake data adds to the uncertainty. To improve preparedness, UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission has launched a multinational project involving India, Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and the UAE.
The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) is studying deep-sea sediments to identify past tsunami events and is focusing on “atypical tsunamis” caused by factors like landslides and meteotsunamis. INCOIS has also enhanced monitoring systems by deploying tsunami buoys, creating hazard maps, and establishing advanced observation networks.
The Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre, established in 2007, detects earthquakes capable of generating tsunamis and issues advisories within 10 minutes. With seismic stations, bottom pressure recorders, tide gauges, and a robust warning system, the center has monitored 679 earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or higher in 15 years. International collaboration and cutting-edge technology are crucial to minimizing the impact of potential tsunamis on India’s west coast.
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