Why India Can’t Ignore Rising Threats from Bangladesh
India faces rising security threats from Bangladesh due to political instability, radicalization, and growing ties with China and Pakistan.
Why India Can’t Ignore Rising Threats from Bangladesh
A precarious shift at India’s eastern doorstep is quietly gaining momentum—and it’s time for New Delhi to take notice.
While India’s diplomatic bandwidth is often consumed by the volatile equations with China and Pakistan, an emerging crisis in Bangladesh now demands urgent and strategic attention. The subtle yet serious transformation within Dhaka’s political and geopolitical landscape carries grave implications for India’s national security, especially along the vulnerable northeastern corridor.
At the heart of this growing tension is an unelected regime, an emboldened wave of radical Islamic sentiment, and a foreign policy tilt that seems increasingly aligned with India’s adversaries. The developments might not yet dominate headlines—but for policymakers in New Delhi, the writing on the wall is stark and pressing.
Bangladesh’s Shifting Allegiances Pose New Security Risks
Recent geopolitical gestures from Dhaka indicate a strategic drift that challenges India’s regional influence. Bangladesh’s invitation to Chinese naval vessels to dock in the Bay of Bengal and its assertion of being a “guardian” of the Indian Ocean reflect ambitions that far exceed historical norms. These moves, combined with provocative statements about India’s Northeast being landlocked, underscore a worrying narrative.
Even more concerning is Dhaka’s warming ties with Pakistan. High-level diplomatic engagements hint at a rekindled alliance between the two, united not just by mutual grievances but also by strategic intent. Bangladesh appears to be playing both sides of the global power equation—leaning into Beijing’s sphere even as U.S. sanctions and shifting diplomatic moods leave it diplomatically isolated from the West.
This is not just posturing. These alignments could lead to the encirclement of India in its own neighborhood—a nightmare scenario that complicates national security planning, especially for the Northeast region.
The Chicken’s Neck: A Fragile Artery Under Threat
India’s northeastern states are connected to the mainland by the 22-km-wide Siliguri Corridor—familiarly called the “Chicken’s Neck.” Any disruption here, whether through conventional military threats or asymmetric tactics like insurgency or infiltration, could sever India’s access to its entire eastern flank.
Bangladesh’s internal radicalization and the political space given to extremist elements amplify this threat. The possibility of cross-border terror networks, illegal arms flow, or insurgent sanctuaries is no longer remote. With Chinese infrastructure projects potentially on the horizon—some rumored to break ground soon—the strategic landscape is rapidly evolving in ways that challenge India’s current preparedness.
Time for a Bold, Multilayered Response
India must recalibrate its approach to Bangladesh with a fine blend of assertiveness and strategic foresight. The following steps can provide a robust framework:
1. Diplomatic Pressure and Global Spotlight
New Delhi should use international forums to highlight the erosion of democratic norms in Dhaka and the regional security risks posed by its radicalization. A coordinated effort with allies like Japan, the U.S., and ASEAN can exert pressure for democratic accountability in Bangladesh.
2. Economic Leverage and Policy Realignment
India has already restricted transshipment facilities. This policy should be extended—phasing out economic aid, suspending trade concessions, and tightening visa regulations. These measures can serve as calibrated pressure points to recalibrate Dhaka’s posture.
3. Strengthen Border Intelligence and Counter-Insurgency
Increased surveillance, investment in electronic fencing, and intelligence coordination across agencies are essential to prevent infiltration and subversive activities. India must remain prepared for swift action should security threats escalate.
4. Quiet Support for Democratic Movements
Without direct interference, India can lend support to pro-democracy voices in Bangladesh. Advocacy for fair elections and civil rights should form a part of New Delhi’s diplomatic narrative at international platforms like the UN.
5. Bolster the Northeast—Strategically and Economically
Developing underground rail and road networks through the Chicken’s Neck, along with targeted economic initiatives, can integrate the region more securely into the national mainstream. A resilient Northeast is India’s best insurance policy against any eastern challenge.
Ignoring History Comes at a Price
India’s past hesitations—be it in Sri Lanka, Nepal, or with the early signs in Pakistan—have often led to strategic setbacks. The situation with Bangladesh is no different, and the window to act is narrowing. If India underestimates the potential of a China-aligned, radicalized Dhaka, it risks being cornered in its own neighborhood.
Much like Ukraine is a red line for Russia, regions like Chittagong and Rangpur must be viewed with similar strategic seriousness by India. Deterrence, in this case, begins with credible posturing and clear communication of red lines.
A Wake-Up Call for India’s Eastern Policy
India’s relationship with Bangladesh is at a turning point. While diplomacy should not be abandoned, it must be matched with readiness, assertiveness, and long-term planning. Strength, not just patience, will preserve peace in the region.
The time for passive observation has passed. New Delhi must act—firmly, wisely, and immediately.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of WION or ZMCL.
source : WION