Like whale blubber, oil’s reign as a primary energy source will phase out over the next decades. Here’s a glimpse of that transition.
Experts predict that oil extraction might become a relic of the past. Between the 17th and 20th centuries, millions of whales were killed for their blubber, which was boiled into oil for lamps and industrial lubricants. This grim process illuminated society but nearly drove several whale species to extinction. Today, commercial whaling is almost entirely banned, and whale populations are recovering.
A similar shift is anticipated for petroleum. While the exact timeline is uncertain, the trend is evident: we’re moving away from oil for home energy, and as climate change accelerates, new technologies will help us further reduce our dependence. Some industries, like shipping and plastics, will continue using oil for longer, but a post-oil world is on the horizon.
Historically, humans have used oil for millennia, with significant industrial use starting in 1859 with Edwin Drake’s well in Pennsylvania. Oil has since transformed society, powering transportation, agriculture, and healthcare. If oil vanished tomorrow, global trade, food security, and medical care would face severe challenges.
However, the transition will be gradual. Electric vehicles (EVs) are set to drastically reduce oil usage, with road vehicles currently consuming nearly 50% of global oil. By 2030, EVs could dominate the market, significantly cutting oil demand. Aviation, reliant on oil, is progressing towards sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), with the potential to significantly reduce oil use by 2050. Shipping remains a tougher challenge, with hydrogen-powered ships still in early stages.
Plastic, derived from oil, poses another significant issue. It’s ubiquitous in products from packaging to medical equipment. While bioplastics offer a potential alternative, they face challenges such as competing with food production for agricultural land.
The end of oil won’t come from depletion but from economic shifts. As clean energy becomes cheaper, risky and expensive oil extraction will decline. While oil production will continue in places like Saudi Arabia and the U.S. for decades, the overall trend will be downward. Some experts foresee a 95% reduction in oil use by 2065, with only aviation and shipping holding out.
Ultimately, oil may become a historical curiosity, like the abandoned mines and ghost towns of the American West, symbolizing a bygone era of energy production.
