Modi in Moscow: India’s Strategic Move, Russia’s Opportunity to Lessen China Dependence | Finepoint

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Russia on July 8 to meet President Vladimir Putin, marking his first bilateral visit since his June electoral victory and his first visit to Russia since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war began.

### Context and Significance
It has been over two years since the Ukraine war started. Russia, dominating the war, has been facing increasing pressure due to the financial strain on the US, which is also dealing with the Israel-Gaza conflict. As the West pushes for a peace plan, an India-Russia summit in Moscow could be pivotal, with India potentially acting as a mediator.

### Historical Background
This will be Modi’s first visit to Russia in five years. The tradition of annual summits between India and Russia began in 2000 during President Putin’s visit to India. The last summit occurred in December 2021 in New Delhi. Modi’s visit to Moscow, delayed by the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict, is now seen as crucial.

### Modi’s Diplomatic Approach
Modi’s diplomatic strategy has evolved over his terms in office. In 2014, his first bilaterals were with Nepal and Bhutan. In 2019, he focused on the Indian Ocean, visiting Sri Lanka and the Maldives. This time, Modi is signaling his intent by engaging with both Western leaders and Russia, showcasing India’s strategic autonomy.

### India-Russia Relations
India values its friendship with Russia, especially amid tensions with China. Despite close Russia-China ties, Russia seeks to hedge against China with India’s help. The bilateral meeting will address key issues like trade imbalances and defense cooperation. India aims to increase its exports to Russia and find ways for Russia to utilize the Indian rupee from oil payments.

1. Trade Imbalance**: India-Russia trade reached $65 billion in 2023, with most being Russian oil exports. India’s exports to Russia are significantly lower, and Modi aims to address this by pushing for increased Indian imports by Russia.

2. Defense Cooperation**: India has a longstanding defense relationship with Russia, including the purchase of S-400 missile systems. A logistics pact allowing mutual use of naval ports is in the works.

3. Ukraine Conflict**: Modi is expected to call for peace in Ukraine, emphasizing diplomacy over war. This aligns with India’s consistent stance on the issue.

 Implications for Putin
Putin, whose foreign trips have been limited since the war, will benefit from Modi’s visit. It provides a platform to regain global attention and legitimacy. With upcoming summits like BRICS, Putin needs to reassert Russia’s global standing.

Modi’s visit underscores India’s strategic autonomy, balancing ties with both the West and Russia. For Russia, it’s a chance to reduce its dependence on China by strengthening ties with India.