Massive Volcanic Eruption Could Be More Devastating Than 1815’s Tambora, Warn Scientists

Scientists warn of a significant risk of a massive volcanic eruption this century, with a one-in-six probability. Such an event could surpass the devastation caused by the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption, leading to severe global cooling, economic losses exceeding $3.6 trillion, and widespread geopolitical and environmental impacts. Today’s warming climate would exacerbate the effects, creating a dangerous feedback loop. Despite monitoring efforts, predicting the timing and location of such eruptions remains impossible.

Scientists caution that humanity could face catastrophic consequences this century from a massive volcanic eruption, with a likelihood significantly higher than that of an asteroid collision. Researchers estimate a one-in-six chance of such an event occurring within the next 100 years.

A CNN report highlights that a volcanic eruption on this scale would surpass the 1815 Mount Tambora disaster in Indonesia, which caused severe global cooling, crop failures, famine, and disease. The year 1816, known as the “year without a summer,” saw widespread devastation as temperatures plummeted. This historic event even inspired Mary Shelley’s famous novel *Frankenstein*.

Greater Risk in Today’s Climate

Experts like Markus Stoffel of Geneva University warn that the impact of a major eruption would be far worse in today’s hotter climate. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo cooled the Earth by 0.5°C, while Tambora’s eruption caused a 1°C drop. However, a warmer atmosphere today would amplify these effects, dispersing sulphur dioxide more rapidly and causing accelerated cooling.

Additionally, climate change increases the likelihood of volcanic activity, creating a dangerous feedback loop that could intensify the impact of an eruption.

Economic and Geopolitical Fallout

A Tambora-scale eruption today could result in economic losses exceeding $3.6 trillion, with the United States, Russia, and China among the most affected nations, according to an analysis by Lloyd’s. Despite ongoing monitoring in regions like Indonesia and the U.S., scientists admit they cannot yet predict the timing or location of such a catastrophic event.

The combination of rapid climate change and the looming threat of massive volcanic activity underscores the urgent need for global preparedness.