A new study highlights the alarming threat of land subsidence, a geohazard impacting nearly 2 billion people worldwide. Land subsidence, caused by factors such as groundwater abstraction and seismic activity, poses significant risks to urban areas and infrastructure.
Researchers, led by Tsimur Davydzenka from the Colorado School of Mines, employed deep learning artificial intelligence to predict land subsidence globally. Their findings, published in Geophysical Research Letters, underscore the urgent need for water resource management strategies to mitigate this geohazard.
The study reveals a significant correlation between groundwater abstraction and subsidence rates, particularly in densely populated urban areas. Over 6.3 million square kilometers of Earth’s surface are susceptible to subsidence, with more than 231,000 square kilometers identified in urban zones, putting approximately 2 billion people at risk.
Groundwater abstraction emerges as the primary predictor of subsidence, followed by seismic activity and environmental conditions. To address this issue, the researchers propose promoting water use efficiency, implementing regulatory frameworks, and investing in alternative water sources such as treated wastewater and desalination.
Unconsolidated sediments, cultivated land, and regions with subtropical and temperate oceanic climates are particularly vulnerable to subsidence. South Asia, the Philippines, Iran, and other countries face significant risks, with millions of people affected.
While the study provides a crucial global map of land subsidence, further refinement of the model is necessary. Future models should consider factors like the depth of groundwater abstraction and the influence of the oil and gas industry to enhance mitigation efforts.
As population growth and climate change exacerbate groundwater depletion, addressing the impact of land subsidence remains a pressing challenge for the future. Effective mitigation strategies are essential to safeguard lives, infrastructure, and the environment from the destructive effects of subsidence.
