Can you predict the future? Yes, you can


The book Everything is Predictable by Tom Chivers explores the power of Bayes’ theorem, a mathematical rule that helps predict a wide range of outcomes, from weather forecasts to sports results. The book highlights how we constantly make predictions in life based on limited information, and how this equation guides those decisions. Chivers compares life to poker, where decisions are made with incomplete knowledge, unlike chess, which can be solved with perfect information.


inside the Equation That Predicts Weather, Sports, and More

“Life isn’t like chess, where you have perfect information. It’s more like poker, where you make the best decisions based on limited knowledge.”

Whether math excites you or overwhelms you, it’s undeniable that many areas of science rely on equations. One of the most influential is Bayes’ theorem, a simple formula developed in the 18th century, which now plays a key role in predicting everything from weather patterns and stock market changes to sports outcomes.

In his book, *Everything is Predictable*, award-winning science writer Tom Chivers explores the profound impact of Bayes’ theorem on modern life. The book, shortlisted for the 2024 Royal Society Trivedi Science Book Prize, delves into how this theorem helps us predict the future, at least to some extent.

Can we predict the future?

Yes, in many cases, we can. You can confidently predict that you will take your next breath or that the sun will rise tomorrow. Events like train schedules or a friend’s punctuality might be less predictable, but still fall within your expectations based on past experience. On a larger scale, you can forecast that the global population will rise until mid-century, or that 2030 will be warmer than 1930.

While parts of the future are more predictable than others—such as the movement of planets versus chaotic weather patterns—the future is not entirely opaque. We make predictions constantly, based on the information we’ve gathered, even if they are imperfect. From everyday decisions like expecting a store to carry your favorite cereal, to larger trends like climate changes, our lives are filled with predictions.

However, all predictions come with uncertainty. Even if the universe were deterministic, with perfect knowledge of all particles and forces, we still operate with incomplete information. Life is less like chess, with its clear outcomes, and more like poker, where decisions are made based on limited, sometimes messy data. This book is about the mathematical equation that helps make sense of these uncertainties.

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