15,000 Taliban Fighters March Toward Pakistan: A Blowback Decades in the Making

Summary:
Approximately 15,000 Taliban fighters are marching toward the Pakistani border, signaling a major escalation in tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. This fallout stems from decades of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, originally nurtured as a strategic tool against adversaries like India and the Soviet-backed Afghan government. The rise of the Taliban in Kabul has emboldened the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), leading to increased terror attacks in Pakistan. Strained relations have worsened following Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan and accusations of cross-border terrorism. Pakistan’s long-standing policy of supporting militant groups has backfired, leaving it grappling with instability and conflict.

In 2011, Hillary Clinton famously warned Pakistan, “You can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbors.” This warning now rings true as the Taliban, once backed by Pakistan, seems to be turning against it. Reports indicate that around 15,000 Taliban fighters are advancing from Afghan cities such as Kabul, Kandahar, and Herat toward Pakistan’s border near Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
This escalation follows Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan, which drew condemnation and threats of retaliation from the Taliban regime. The souring relations highlight a growing conflict rooted in decades of Pakistan’s strategic support for militant groups, including the Taliban.

Pakistan had hoped the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul would curb the activities of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an allied but separate group seeking to establish an Islamic emirate in Pakistan. Instead, the TTP has been emboldened, contributing to a 56% rise in terror-related fatalities in Pakistan in 2023 compared to the previous year.

Pakistan’s attempts to tighten control, including trade restrictions, stricter visa policies, and expulsions of undocumented Afghan migrants, have further strained relations. Recent Pakistani military actions were prompted by TTP attacks on checkpoints, but they have deepened the divide with Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, which Pakistan accuses of harboring militants across the porous border.

The roots of this conflict trace back to the 1990s, when Pakistan’s intelligence agency, ISI, supported the Taliban to counter the Soviet-backed Afghan regime and gain “strategic depth.” Pakistan provided military advisors, equipment, and training, even as the Taliban hosted al-Qaeda. This proxy strategy extended to using the Taliban to exert influence in Kashmir through groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba.

However, Pakistan’s decades-long policy of fostering militants has backfired, creating what experts call its “dual-Taliban problem.” Now, both the Afghan Taliban and the TTP pose significant threats to Pakistan’s stability, proving Clinton’s warning all too prescient.