This year’s hurricane season could see up to 25 named storms, according to an unprecedented forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Scientists warn that unusually high ocean temperatures and the transition from El Niño to La Niña could contribute to an increase in major hurricanes.
### Record-Breaking Forecast
NOAA’s May forecast predicts 17 to 25 named storms for the Atlantic hurricane season. Of these, 13 are expected to become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or higher, and four to seven could become major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph (179 km/h) or higher. This forecast marks the highest ever made by NOAA for a May prediction.
### Extraordinary Season Expected
“This season is looking to be extraordinary in a number of ways,” NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad stated at a news conference on May 23. He noted that 2024 is projected to be the seventh consecutive above-normal hurricane season. An average hurricane season typically has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The most active season on record, 2020, saw 30 named storms.
### Impact of Climate Change
Climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons compared to the 1980s. While hotter oceans don’t necessarily increase the frequency of hurricanes, they do make storms grow more rapidly and become more powerful. Hurricanes form from warm ocean water that evaporates and rises, creating storm clouds. The warmer the ocean, the more energy is available to fuel these storms.
### Ocean Temperatures and Climate Cycles
Since March 2023, average sea surface temperatures worldwide have reached record highs, indicating a potentially busy storm season. Additionally, the recent end of El Niño, which stabilizes Atlantic winds and inhibits hurricane formation, is expected to give way to La Niña by summer or fall. La Niña weakens trade winds and reduces vertical wind shear, which can lead to more frequent and intense storms.
As the 2024 hurricane season approaches, scientists and forecasters are closely monitoring these conditions to better understand and prepare for the potential impacts of an exceptionally active storm season.
