Climate Change Poses a Grave Threat to Elderly Elephants, Jeopardizing Their Future

A groundbreaking study conducted by a collaborative team from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) sheds light on the profound impact of global climate change on African elephants, particularly the older individuals within the population. The research, recently published in PLOS Sustainability and Transformation, reveals a significant decline in the survival chances of older elephants, posing a severe threat not only to the species’ resilience against changing climates but also sending ripple effects throughout the ecosystem. The team has also devised potential mitigation scenarios, which are currently being implemented by WCS.
The study focused on Africa’s Greater Virunga Landscape (GVL), spanning 15,700 square kilometers across Uganda, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Home to the largest land animals in Africa, the region houses seven national parks, three tropical high-forest reserves, and three wildlife reserves, accounting for 88% of the area. Unfortunately, the African elephant population in this region has dwindled to critically endangered levels over the past century.
Elephants, vital for ecosystem modification and sustainability, play a crucial role in dispersing plant seeds, influencing soil fertility, and are culturally significant in many African societies. Despite this, few studies have delved into the interplay between environmental dynamics, climate change, elephant demography, and the evolving habitat’s long-term impact.
Lead author Simon Nampindo and Professor Timothy Randhir developed a systems dynamic model to gain comprehensive insights into the future of African elephants in the face of climate change. Utilizing data on elephant numbers, historical landscape changes, and climate change scenarios, the model assessed the impact on elephants across five age brackets. The results revealed that older elephants would face severe consequences under every warming scenario, affecting matriarchal leadership and causing ripple effects across the landscape.
The study not only identifies threats but also provides a tool to evaluate policy effectiveness. It emphasizes the need for a coordinated management strategy at national, regional, and local levels to address poaching threats, emphasizing well-funded anti-poaching efforts, community-led programs, and appropriate landscape management to combat habitat fragmentation, fire, and invasive species. The implications extend beyond elephants, impacting other species like lions and mountain gorillas. The systems dynamic modeling approach can be adapted for other migratory species that traverse political boundaries, offering a valuable tool for conservation efforts

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