Moore’s Law of Aviation: How Flying Continues to Get Safer

Many passengers worry about flying, but recent research from MIT shows that commercial air travel is becoming increasingly safer. According to the study, the risk of a fatality from air travel was 1 in 13.7 million passenger boardings globally from 2018 to 2022. This is a significant improvement from 1 in 7.9 million during 2008–2017 and a far cry from 1 in 350,000 in the 1968–1977 period.

MIT’s Arnold Barnett, a co-author of the study, highlights that aviation safety has been improving consistently. He likens this trend to Moore’s Law in computing, noting that the chance of dying during a flight has been decreasing by about 7% annually and is halved roughly every decade. Although there are no guarantees for continual progress and recent near-collisions have raised concerns, Barnett believes these improvements are substantial.

The study also examines the impact of COVID-19 on air travel safety. It estimates around 1,200 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 linked to air travel between June 2020 and February 2021, and approximately 4,760 deaths globally from March 2020 to December 2022. This data is analyzed separately from the long-term safety trend.

Barnett points out that commercial air travel is now about 39 times safer than in the 1968–1977 period. The study, published in the August issue of the *Journal of Air Transport Management*, uses fatalities per passenger boarding as a key metric, alongside other measures such as deaths per billion passenger miles.

Globally, there are disparities in air travel safety. The study categorizes countries into three tiers based on safety records, with the top tier including the U.S., EU countries, and others. Countries in the top tiers had significantly lower fatality rates compared to those in the third tier.

Overall, while the ongoing challenge of maintaining and improving air safety remains, the long-term trend indicates that commercial air travel is steadily becoming safer.