The electrification of road vehicles, predominantly focused on cars, is poised to extend to heavy-duty trucks and vehicles used for transporting goods. This transition has been hindered by the technical challenges of powering larger vehicles for extended periods, which necessitate costly and advanced battery technologies.
Researchers from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) recently addressed these challenges by forecasting future cost reductions in truck batteries and fuel cells. Published in Nature Energy, their study projects significant cost declines in both technologies, which could accelerate the adoption of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles.
Lead author Steffen Link highlighted the study’s findings, noting, “Our analysis indicates that costs for zero-emission trucks are set to decrease faster than previously anticipated, making cost-effective operations feasible sooner than expected.” Given the short ownership cycles of commercial trucks (typically 3-6 years), rapid market diffusion is anticipated compared to private cars.
The researchers synthesized data from over 200 sources spanning from 2010 to 2023, including academic papers, industry reports, and analyst insights. Using robust statistical methods, they developed cost projections for truck batteries and fuel cells, validating their forecasts against historical energy technology advancements.
According to Link, “Battery system costs are expected to drop to €200/kWh soon, approaching €100/kWh by the late 2040s, while fuel cell costs could reach €150/kW by the late 2030s.” These projections underscore significant potential for cost competitiveness against diesel trucks over the vehicle lifecycle.
The study also highlighted disparities between predictions from academic and industry sources, suggesting varying levels of technology maturity. “Optimism in battery cost projections is evident from near-market sources, contrasting with more optimistic but scientifically grounded fuel cell cost forecasts,” Link explained.
In conclusion, the research underscores the feasibility of substantial cost reductions in battery and fuel cell technologies, pivotal for advancing zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles and reducing global carbon emissions.
