Trump Threatens Tariffs on Russian Oil to End Ukraine War in 2025

Trump vows 25-50% tariffs on Russian oil if Putin stalls Ukraine peace talks, escalating tensions in 2025. Will this strategy work?

Washington, D.C. — In a bold escalation of his foreign policy gambit, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday, March 30, 2025, that he’s prepared to slap secondary tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on all Russian oil exports if Moscow doesn’t play ball in ending the war in Ukraine. Speaking candidly with NBC News, Trump didn’t mince words: he’s “pissed off” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and ready to wield America’s economic might to force a ceasefire. With the conflict now stretching into its fourth year, Trump’s latest move signals a high-stakes pivot—could this be the leverage he’s been searching for since reclaiming the White House?

The announcement came just hours after Trump vented his frustration over Putin’s recent jabs at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom the Russian leader accused of lacking legitimacy. “I’m angry,” Trump told NBC’s Kelly Welker in an early morning phone call, his voice crackling with irritation. “Putin knows it, but I’ve got a good relationship with him. That anger dissipates fast if he does the right thing.” The “right thing,” in Trump’s view, is a swift ceasefire and a deal to halt the bloodshed that has claimed countless lives and destabilized Eastern Europe.

A Campaign Promise Meets Reality

Trump’s fixation on ending what he calls a “ridiculous war” isn’t new. Throughout his 2024 campaign, he repeatedly vowed to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine—sometimes claiming he could do it in a single day. Since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, that promise has collided with the messy reality of a conflict fueled by deep-seated animosity and geopolitical chess moves. Now, barely two months into his second term, Trump is doubling down, blending his signature brashness with a calculated economic threat.

The tariffs, if enacted, would target any nation buying Russian oil, effectively barring them from U.S. markets unless they comply. “If Russia and I can’t make a deal, and I think it’s their fault, I’m hitting them with 25% to 50% tariffs on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump declared. He gave Putin a tight timeline: a ceasefire must materialize within a month, or the tariffs kick in. It’s a classic Trump play—leveraging America’s economic clout to bend adversaries to his will.

But will it work? Experts are skeptical. Russia, one of the world’s top oil producers, has already weathered a barrage of Western sanctions since invading Ukraine in February 2022. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Russia exported roughly 7.5 million barrels of oil per day in 2024, much of it rerouted to China and India after Europe slashed imports. The U.S., meanwhile, hasn’t imported significant Russian oil since sanctions zeroed out that trade in 2023. “The direct impact on U.S.-Russia trade is negligible,” says Dr. Emily Holland, an energy policy expert at the Naval War College. “But secondary tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, hiking prices for everyone.”

Trump’s Putin Paradox

Trump’s relationship with Putin adds another layer of intrigue. He’s long touted their rapport, a dynamic that raised eyebrows during his first term and fueled endless speculation about his Russia stance. “I’ve always had a very good relationship with him,” Trump reiterated Sunday, even as he threatened economic punishment. It’s a tightrope walk—balancing personal affinity with the need to project strength. This week, he plans to pick up the phone and hash it out with Putin directly, a call that could either defuse tensions or ignite a new standoff.

Contrast that with his icy dealings with Zelensky. Trump has spent weeks lambasting the Ukrainian leader, falsely branding him a “dictator” and calling for new elections—a demand echoing Putin’s Friday suggestion of a “temporary administration” to oversee Ukraine’s political transition. The rhetoric has strained U.S.-Ukraine ties, already frayed after Trump paused military aid and intelligence sharing earlier this month following a heated Oval Office clash. “I’m finding it more difficult to deal with Ukraine,” he admitted to reporters on March 7. “They don’t have the cards.”

Zelensky, for his part, has pushed back hard. In a Telegram post Friday, he insisted Ukraine is ready for peace but stressed that Russia, as the aggressor, must face pressure to stop its attacks. “The main thing is not to slow down,” he wrote, a subtle jab at Trump’s carrot-and-stick approach.

The Oil Weapon: A Double-Edged Sword

Trump’s tariff threat isn’t just about Russia—it’s a signal to the world. By targeting oil, he’s tapping into a lifeline of the Russian economy, which relies heavily on energy exports despite sanctions. The International Energy Agency estimates oil and gas account for about 40% of Russia’s federal budget revenue. Cutting that artery could force Putin to the table, especially if global buyers balk at the risk of U.S. retaliation.

Yet the strategy carries risks. Oil markets are notoriously volatile, and a sudden tariff hike could spike prices at the pump—a political liability for Trump, who’s pledged to keep costs low for Americans. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warns, “If you disrupt Russia’s 7 million barrels a day, you’re playing with fire. Prices could jump 20-30 cents a gallon overnight.” That’s a tough sell for a president who’s staked his domestic agenda on economic prosperity.

There’s also the question of enforcement. Russia has proven adept at dodging sanctions, using “dark pool” tankers and third-party nations to keep oil flowing. A 2024 report from Global Witness found that over 1,200 vessels helped Russia evade Western trade curbs last year alone. “Trump’s tariffs might hurt, but Putin’s got workarounds,” says Holland. “He’s not going to fold that easily.”

Voices from the Ground

For those caught in the war’s crosshairs, Trump’s gambit stirs mixed emotions. In Kyiv, 34-year-old teacher Olena Kovalenko welcomes any pressure on Russia but fears U.S. disengagement. “We need weapons, not just words,” she told me via email. “If America pulls back, we’re left defenseless.” Meanwhile, in Moscow, 29-year-old programmer Alexei Ivanov shrugs off the tariff talk. “Sanctions? We’ve lived with them for years. Life goes on,” he said in a phone interview.

Back in the U.S., opinions split along familiar lines. Republican Senator Marco Rubio, Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, backs the tariff threat, arguing it’s time to “get tough” with Russia. Democrats, like Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, warn it’s a hollow gesture that masks Trump’s reluctance to confront Putin head-on. “He’s still playing footsie with a dictator while Ukraine burns,” Murphy tweeted Sunday.

A Broader Vision—or a Risky Bluff?

Trump’s oil tariff pledge fits into a larger pattern. Since taking office, he’s leaned heavily on economic tools to shape foreign policy, from threatening tariffs on Mexico and Canada over migration to pressuring OPEC+ to slash oil prices. At the World Economic Forum in Davos this January, he argued that cheaper oil could “bleed Russia dry” and end the war—a theory he’s now putting to the test.

Some see genius in the approach. “Trump understands leverage,” says Keith Kellogg, his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia. In a Fox News interview last week, Kellogg suggested dropping oil prices to $45 a barrel—Russia’s break-even point—could tip the scales. Others call it a bluff. Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political analyst, told The Guardian in January that Putin believes he can outlast Western pressure, tariffs or not.

What’s Next?

As Trump prepares to dial Putin, the world watches. A ceasefire within a month seems ambitious, even for a dealmaker of Trump’s caliber. Russia’s latest barrage of missiles on Ukrainian energy grids, launched just days after U.S. aid paused, suggests Putin’s in no mood to back down. Meanwhile, Zelensky’s team is set to meet U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia next week, hinting at parallel talks that could complicate Trump’s plan.

For now, the tariff threat hangs like a storm cloud over global markets and diplomatic corridors. If Trump follows through, it could reshape the war’s trajectory—or backfire spectacularly. Either way, the next 30 days promise to be a defining chapter in his presidency.

A High-Stakes Gamble Worth Watching

Donald Trump’s vow to tariff Russian oil is more than a policy—it’s a test of wills. Can economic pressure succeed where diplomacy and sanctions have faltered? For Americans, it’s a chance to see if Trump’s dealmaking swagger delivers on a campaign promise. For Ukrainians and Russians, it’s a lifeline or a noose, depending on who blinks first. Stay tuned: the clock’s ticking, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Whether you’re rooting for peace or bracing for chaos, this is one story with no predictable ending—yet.

Source:  (Reuters)

(Disclaimer:  This article is based on publicly available information as of March 30, 2025, and reflects the author’s interpretation of current events. It does not represent official statements or endorsements from any government or organization mentioned. For the latest updates, consult reputable news sources.)

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