Facing food inflation and upcoming provincial elections, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi must decide whether to amend food policies. Recent election losses have heightened the challenge of balancing control over food prices without imposing export bans or increasing imports, measures that have upset farmers, a significant voting bloc.
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retained power through a coalition but now faces elections in Haryana and Maharashtra, both critical agricultural states. Losses here could weaken the BJP’s position in the coalition, complicating policy approvals.
Farmers, represented by groups like the Kisan Mahapanchayat, have criticized the government for export bans and cheaper imports, which they say hurt agricultural incomes. Modi’s administration has previously used these measures to control consumer prices, impacting staples like rice, wheat, sugar, and onions, and reducing tariffs on pulse and vegetable oils.
However, with food inflation remaining high and rural constituencies feeling neglected, the BJP retained fewer rural seats in recent elections. To gain favor ahead of the state elections, analysts suggest the BJP might ease some export curbs and raise government support prices for crops.
The government has announced increased support prices for summer-sown crops, but the increments are modest, causing disappointment among farmers. Experts like Ashok Gulati predict possible relaxation of rice and onion export bans due to sufficient stockpiles and a good monsoon forecast.
In Maharashtra, onion growers are particularly aggrieved, reflecting in the BJP losing all seats in key onion-growing areas. Maharashtra’s Chief Minister has urged the federal government to lift onion export restrictions. Additionally, low prices for cotton and soybean have fueled discontent among farmers in the state.
Overall, Modi’s administration must balance managing inflation with addressing farmer grievances to avoid further electoral setbacks.
