In a bid to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, as mandated by President Xi Jinping, China faces the formidable task of expanding its wind and solar power infrastructure by eight to 10 times the current capacity. This ambitious goal necessitates substantial investments in transmission lines and a shift towards coordinated land use policies at a national level, departing from the decentralized approach of local governments. A recent study conducted by researchers at Tsinghua University in Beijing and the University of California San Diego sheds light on the scale of these challenges and the strategies required to overcome them. Published in the Feb. 26, 2024, issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study offers crucial insights into China’s renewable energy planning and its global impact on climate change.
Led by senior author Michael Davidson, a professor at UC San Diego, the study’s aim is twofold: to inform China’s renewable energy policies and to address its status as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, thus influencing global climate change dynamics. By employing an innovative model that simulates China’s carbon-neutral power grid in 2060, the researchers project the necessary power generation resources and transmission line installations with unprecedented precision, down to parcels of land as small as 20 to 30 square kilometers. The adaptable nature of the model allows its application to other countries, offering valuable insights for global renewable energy strategies.
As the study progressed, the critical role of land use emerged, particularly in China’s eastern regions near the coast, where available land for renewable energy installations becomes increasingly scarce. To compensate, the model suggests smaller-scale solar installations on residential and commercial buildings. Key findings indicate the need for constructing two to four terawatts each of solar and wind capacity, alongside terawatt-level energy storage infrastructure. Moreover, doubling or tripling ultra-high voltage transmission lines between provinces is imperative to ensure efficient power distribution.
Future endeavors involve integrating flexible demand into the model, expanding the scope of land use factors, and exploring the impact of altering the power resource mix and emissions reduction strategies across various sectors. By addressing these challenges and embracing innovative solutions, China can navigate its journey towards carbon neutrality while offering valuable lessons for other nations grappling with similar objectives.
