Does Train Length Impact Derailment Risk?

Does Train Length Impact Derailment Risk?

Longer freight trains have a higher likelihood of derailing compared to shorter ones, according to new research published in *Risk Analysis*. The study found that even when accounting for the reduced number of trains needed if each train has more cars, longer trains still pose a greater risk.

Researchers analyzed data on US freight train accidents from 2013 to 2022, sourced from Federal Railroad Administration databases. They discovered that 100-car trains have an 11% higher risk of derailment than 50-car trains, despite needing only half as many 100-car trains. For 200-car trains, the risk is 24% higher than for 50-car trains.

“Due to the Federal Railroad Administration not collecting data on the lengths of trains that haven’t been in accidents, our research involved some innovative modeling, which we detail in the paper. Nevertheless, the increased risk associated with longer trains is evident,” said Robin L. Dillon, Ph.D., of Georgetown University, the study’s corresponding author.