Summary:
President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to mediate a peace deal to end the three-year war in Ukraine, aiming for resolution within six months. However, Moscow and Kyiv are entrenched in their positions, with both sides intensifying military efforts to gain leverage in negotiations. Russia insists on recognition of its territorial gains and a rollback of sanctions, while Ukraine demands strong security guarantees and aims to prevent a temporary truce that would allow Russia to regroup. Analysts warn that failed talks could escalate tensions, potentially leading to a direct U.S.-Russia confrontation.

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, he has pledged to broker a swift peace deal to end the three-year war in Ukraine. However, with both Moscow and Kyiv intensifying their battlefield efforts to secure favorable positions, peace remains elusive.

Military Moves on Both Sides

Over the past year, Russian forces have steadily advanced into Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions, aiming to consolidate control over territories Moscow illegally annexed in 2022 but never fully occupied. Meanwhile, relentless missile and drone strikes have targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

In response, Ukraine has sought to disrupt Russian operations with strikes on oil facilities and incursions into Russia’s Kursk region. Despite these efforts, Kyiv faces significant manpower shortages, declining recruitment, and increasing desertions, making it difficult to stabilize the front lines.

Tough Stances on Negotiations

Both nations remain entrenched in their positions. Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that any peace deal must acknowledge Moscow’s territorial gains, demand Ukraine’s neutrality regarding NATO, and include the lifting of Western sanctions. On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tempered his earlier demands for a full Russian withdrawal but continues to push for security guarantees and comprehensive agreements to prevent further hostilities.

Trump’s Peace Strategy

During his campaign, Trump promised to resolve the conflict in 24 hours, but he has since extended this timeline, expressing hope for a six-month resolution. His nominee for Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, believes a deal could be struck within 100 days.

Kellogg has reassured European allies that Trump’s approach will protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. Analysts predict that Trump may use economic and military pressure to force Putin to halt hostilities. However, skeptics argue that Putin, buoyed by Russia’s military gains and economic resilience despite sanctions, is unlikely to compromise.

Outlook for Peace Talks

Putin has rejected temporary ceasefires, viewing them as opportunities for Ukraine to regroup. Instead, Moscow seeks assurances that Ukraine will not rearm and will adopt policies favorable to Russia. Observers warn that failed negotiations could escalate tensions between Russia and the U.S., with the potential for direct confrontation if Trump intensifies support for Kyiv.

The divergent goals of Moscow and Kyiv continue to cast doubt on the feasibility of a peace deal. While Trump’s administration has expressed confidence in its ability to mediate, analysts caution that Putin may escalate the conflict further rather than concede ground.

Disclaimer:
This summary is based on publicly available information as reported by The Associated Press. Interpretations and analyses reflect the current state of affairs and are subject to change as new developments unfold.

SOURCE : AP NEWS