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Ukraine’s financial survival is now tied as much to budgets and emergency repairs as it is to the battlefield. A new IMF-backed lending package could help stabilize government funding, and open the door for additional international support.

Kristalina Georgieva’s unannounced trip to Kyiv signals that global lenders are still engaged, even as the war and winter pressure Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure to the breaking point.

According to a Reuters report, Georgieva expects the IMF to move a new lending program to its board for approval in the coming weeks.

A surprise Kyiv visit as winter pressure mounts

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva arrived in Kyiv on Thursday in a closely guarded visit that was not disclosed publicly until she reached the Ukrainian capital.

She traveled by a special VIP train before dawn, then met with senior Ukrainian leaders, including President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as the country faces a new wave of damage from Russian strikes.

The timing was notable. Her visit came just weeks before February 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and during one of the harshest winters Ukraine has faced in years.

An $8.1 billion program is moving toward approval

Georgieva said she expects a new $8.1 billion lending program for Ukraine to be presented to the IMF’s board for approval in the coming weeks.

In an interview cited by Reuters, she described the program as a key step that could help unlock additional financing from other institutions, support Ukraine urgently needs as the war continues to strain public finances.

The IMF’s role is often seen as more than just the money it provides. A program backed by the Fund can act as a signal to donors and markets that reforms and fiscal planning are being monitored and supported.

Conditions remain, but flexibility is now part of the plan

While Georgieva acknowledged that Ukraine’s situation has deteriorated since officials reached a preliminary agreement in November, she said the overall direction of the program’s requirements would not change.

However, she also made clear the IMF understands the reality of governing during wartime.

She said the Fund is prepared to show flexibility on how and when certain measures are advanced, as long as Ukraine remains committed to the broader reform path agreed earlier.

VAT exemptions emerge as a key sticking point

One of the most sensitive measures involves removing a value-added tax (VAT) exemption for consumer goods, a change that has faced domestic resistance.

Georgieva said she told Ukrainian authorities the step must move forward, but she also described a more flexible approach to meeting the requirement.

Instead of demanding the law be fully passed before the program can advance, the IMF would require that the measure is introduced, not necessarily approved by parliament, before the lending package can be finalized.

That approach reflects the political difficulty of pushing unpopular tax changes while the country is under constant military and economic strain.

Kyiv’s emergency response underscores the urgency

The day before Georgieva’s arrival, President Zelenskiy declared a state of emergency aimed at speeding up work on power supply disruptions caused by intense Russian attacks.

Repairs have been complicated by brutal winter conditions. Nighttime temperatures in Kyiv have reportedly fallen close to minus-20 Celsius (minus-4 Fahrenheit), slowing restoration work and making daily life harder for residents.

Georgieva compared the current moment to her earlier visit to Ukraine in February 2023 and suggested the challenges have deepened significantly.

She said she was struck by how Kyiv continues functioning despite the scale of the pressure, pointing to the resilience of residents coping with the ongoing cost of war.

A moment of remembrance at a wall of portraits

One of Georgieva’s first public stops was at St. Michael’s Golden-Domed Monastery, where she joined Ukraine’s central bank governor Andriy Pyshnyi.

They placed flowers at a memorial wall displaying portraits of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers killed since 2014 while fighting Russia.

Georgieva highlighted that the pain Ukraine is experiencing did not begin only with the full-scale invasion, emphasizing the longer history of loss and conflict that Ukrainians have endured for years.

The visit served as both a symbolic gesture and a reminder that financial discussions in Ukraine are inseparable from the human cost of war.

Meetings across government and the business community

During her one-day trip, Georgieva met separately with:

• Central bank governor Andriy Pyshnyi
  

• Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko
  

• Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko
  

• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy
  

She also held discussions with business executives and investors, reinforcing that Ukraine’s recovery and stability depend not only on public funding but also on sustaining private sector activity.

Svyrydenko publicly welcomed Georgieva’s visit, calling it an important signal of international support at a difficult moment, especially for Ukraine’s energy sector amid intensified attacks and extreme winter cold.

She said she showed Georgieva damage caused by Russian strikes at a major Kyiv energy facility.

A personal connection to Ukraine

Georgieva, who grew up in Bulgaria, has also spoken about a personal link to Ukraine.

According to Reuters, her brother whose wife is Ukrainian, was in Kharkiv when Russia launched its invasion, giving the IMF chief a direct family connection to the country’s crisis.

That detail adds emotional weight to her public statements, even as the IMF’s decisions remain rooted in financial frameworks and reform benchmarks.

Ukraine’s economy faces a long funding gap

The proposed IMF package would provide budget support over four years, tied to several commitments.

Those include strengthening financing assurances, passing a 2026 budget, and expanding the tax base, steps designed to help the government keep operating while the war continues.

The stakes are enormous. Reuters reported estimated funding shortfalls of around $136.5 billion through 2029, underscoring how difficult it will be for Ukraine to balance wartime spending, reconstruction needs, and economic stability.

Ukraine has agreed to accelerate work to reduce tax evasion and avoidance, though the IMF is reportedly not counting on major revenue gains until 2027.

EU support and debt restructuring provide added breathing room

Ukraine has already taken steps that strengthen its position with international partners.

It passed the 2026 budget and recently received a major boost when European Union leaders agreed to provide 90 billion euros ($105 billion) in lending for two years.

A crucial element of that arrangement is that Ukraine would only need to service the loan if Russia pays reparations after the war ends, meaning it is not expected to create immediate budget strain.

Ukraine also completed a restructuring of $2.6 billion in growth-linked debt, avoiding a potential financial burden that could have reached $20 billion through 2041.

A shift from the previous IMF plan

The new IMF lending program would replace the Fund’s existing four-year $15.5 billion arrangement.

Of that earlier package, around $10.6 billion has already been disbursed, according to the Reuters report.

That previous plan assumed the war would end in 2025. The updated preliminary agreement reportedly still assumes the war ends this year, but it includes a downside scenario in which the conflict winds down slowly and does not end until 2028.

What comes next for Georgieva

After leaving Ukraine, Georgieva is expected to continue a packed international schedule.

Reuters reported she will travel to Rome for an audience with Pope Leo XIV, followed by stops in Liechtenstein and Davos for the World Economic Forum. She is also expected to visit Brussels on her return to Washington.

Impact and what this means for Ukraine

Georgieva’s visit sends a clear message: Ukraine’s economic survival remains a global priority, even as the war drags on and infrastructure damage accelerates.

If approved, the IMF program could provide more than direct financial support, it could help stabilize planning for salaries, pensions, and basic services while reinforcing confidence among donors and investors.

At the same time, the VAT exemption dispute shows the tension between reform demands and wartime political reality. Ukraine’s leaders must balance public tolerance, parliamentary support, and urgent funding needs under conditions few countries ever face.

A test of resilience, and a test of partnership

Ukraine is fighting to keep its cities running, its lights on, and its finances intact while under constant attack. Georgieva’s surprise visit to Kyiv reflects how high the stakes have become, not just militarily, but economically.

In the coming weeks, the IMF board’s decision on the new $8.1 billion program will be watched closely as a measure of whether the international financial system can adapt to the demands of a prolonged war.

For Ukraine, the message is simple: survival now depends on both endurance at home and sustained confidence abroad.

 

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