How India Can Catch the AI Upside

— by vishal Sambyal

India stands at a crossroads in the AI revolution. With the right policies, talent strategy, and industry collaboration, the nation can turn disruption into opportunity.

Introduction: The AI Moment India Cannot Miss

Artificial Intelligence is no longer a futuristic dream — it’s today’s defining disruptor. From customer service to code generation, AI is reshaping the way humans work, think, and create. For India, whose technology services sector employs millions and anchors its global competitiveness, this shift represents both a threat and a generational opportunity.

In its new “Roadmap for Job Creation in the AI Economy”, released on October 10, NITI Aayog underscores a powerful truth: AI could be the single largest technological revolution of our lifetimes — and how India reacts now will determine whether it becomes a net creator or a net loser of jobs.

Context: A Sector on the Frontline of AI Disruption

India’s tech services industry employs about 7.5–8 million people, accounting for nearly 13% of the total workforce and over 30% of the country’s white-collar talent. But with automation accelerating, the same sector faces significant risks.

By mid-2025, roughly 78,000 tech employees had already lost their jobs to AI — that’s about 500 people a day. Yet, paradoxically, AI is also generating entirely new professions such as data annotators, prompt engineers, AI ethicists, and safety testers — roles unimaginable just a few years ago.

The dilemma is clear: if India doesn’t act swiftly, it could lose 1.5 million jobs by 2030. But with proactive reform, industry collaboration, and academic focus, the same wave could create two million new jobs instead.

Main Developments: The Mechanics of Disruption

It’s easy to see AI as a destroyer of employment. But history tells a more nuanced story. The printing press once replaced scribes, only to spawn millions of jobs in publishing, education, and manufacturing. Textile automation replaced handweavers but gave rise to global fashion and retail industries.

Similarly, when computers entered Indian offices in the 1980s, they were met with protests from typists and clerks fearing redundancy. Instead, computerization fueled the IT revolution that made India a global tech powerhouse.

AI represents the next phase of that evolution — not an extinction, but a transformation of work. The question is whether India can lead this transition, or merely survive it.

Three Critical Challenges India Must Overcome

1. The Scale of Job Displacement
A study by the Centre of Advanced Study in India found that over 60% of formal sector jobs are susceptible to automation by 2030 — particularly in IT and BPO. Half the workers surveyed fear AI will impact their roles. This anxiety is not unfounded: repetitive and process-driven tasks are being rapidly replaced by machine learning systems.

2. The Weak Talent Pipeline
India’s AI potential is constrained by its uneven education system. Computer science is not mandatory in most schools, unlike in China and Russia. According to the 2025 AI Index Report, India also lags behind in AI research publications and patents — a signal that innovation remains concentrated in a few elite institutions.

3. The AI Talent Gap
There’s a severe mismatch between demand and supply. A NASSCOM 2024 report shows India’s AI talent supply meets only 50% of demand. Between 2024 and 2026, demand will rise to 1.25 million, but talent growth is just 15% annually. Worse, India faces net negative AI talent migration (-1.55 per 10,000), meaning more experts are leaving than arriving — unlike the UAE, Singapore, or Saudi Arabia, which are attracting global talent.

Global Lessons: How Other Nations Are Winning the AI Race

Globally, governments are investing heavily to secure AI leadership.

  • Saudi Arabia launched the Saudi Data & AI Authority in 2019, training 779,000 citizens and investing $20 billion to build a robust AI ecosystem across 23 ministries.
  • Singapore funds over 100 AI projects, trains engineers with a 95% placement rate, and prioritizes applied AI education.
  • The UAE established the world’s first AI university, already producing 500 graduates from 40 countries.
  • China has integrated AI into high school curricula, built two national AI labs, and aims for universal AI literacy by 2030.
  • The United States has incorporated AI into K-12 curricula, backed by the National Science Foundation, to ensure early exposure.

In contrast, India’s progress has been incremental, not transformative.

India’s Efforts So Far: A Strong Start, But Gaps Remain

The Indian government’s flagship IndiaAI Mission, backed by ₹10,000 crore, aims to invest in datasets, startups, and responsible AI. It’s supported by new AI Centres of Excellence in agriculture, health, and smart cities.

However, these initiatives remain fragmented. The India Startup Fund lacks specific focus on AI-led ventures. In schools, CBSE’s AI curriculum and Atal Tinkering Labs (ATL) have helped, but teacher shortages and uneven rollout limit impact.

India’s AI education pipeline is still narrow: most advanced programs are confined to IITs and select private universities, leaving hundreds of engineering colleges without structured AI departments or labs.

Expert Insight: What NITI Aayog Proposes

NITI Aayog recommends a nationally coordinated “India AI Talent Mission” — an integrated approach uniting industry, academia, and government.

The mission is built on five foundational pillars:

  1. AI Fluency in Education: Embed AI learning from school to university.
  2. Talent Magnet Strategy: Make India a global hub for AI skills and careers.
  3. Massive AI Skilling Engine: Reskill and upskill millions of workers.
  4. Open-Source AI Commons: Create shared data and open benchmarks for innovation.
  5. National Compute & Innovation Grid: Build the infrastructure to support large-scale AI research.

These pillars together could turn India into a net exporter of AI expertise, not a casualty of automation.

Impact & Implications: What’s at Stake

The stakes couldn’t be higher. India’s IT and BPO sectors, worth $250 billion, are the country’s economic backbone. If AI disruption goes unmanaged, it could trigger mass layoffs, wage pressure, and a decline in service exports.

But if India gets it right — building a digitally skilled workforce, fostering innovation, and aligning policy with industry needs — it can lead the global AI services economy.

AI won’t just automate jobs; it will amplify human capability. Customer support, healthcare diagnostics, fintech, logistics, and agriculture could all benefit from human-AI collaboration, creating new categories of work rather than erasing them.

Conclusion: Turning Disruption into Destiny

India’s AI journey will be defined by how fast it adapts — not how loudly it fears change. The world is moving toward an AI-first future, and delay could mean losing both talent and opportunity.

A unified national mission, backed by real investment, policy coherence, and educational reform, is India’s best bet to “catch the AI upside.” If executed with urgency, AI could become not the cause of unemployment — but the engine of India’s next great leap.

Disclaimer:This article is based on publicly available data, reports, and policy announcements. It reflects an independent journalistic analysis and does not represent the official position of any organization or government body.