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China’s colossal $170 billion Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project promises massive energy output but ignites fears across India and Bangladesh over water security and seismic risks.

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Introduction: Mega Dam, Mega Tensions

China is digging deep—literally and geopolitically. In a bold move, Beijing has broken ground on a staggering $170 billion hydropower project that, once operational, could generate enough electricity to light up the entire United Kingdom. This isn’t just an energy milestone—it’s a strategic, environmental, and diplomatic powder keg. As the turbines promise a green revolution, India and Bangladesh are bracing for a different kind of current: conflict over water.

️ Context & Background: A River of Power and Politics

The Yarlung Zangbo River, which morphs into the Brahmaputra as it crosses into India and Bangladesh, is a critical artery for millions downstream. Originating high on the Tibetan Plateau, the river dives 2,000 meters across a 50-kilometer stretch—making it an engineering goldmine for hydroelectric power.

China’s new mega-dam project in this volatile terrain dwarfs even the iconic Three Gorges Dam. Unveiled by Premier Li Qiang, the plan has supercharged China’s construction sector and injected optimism into a lagging economy. However, to its southern neighbors, the silence surrounding the technical and environmental specifics of the project speaks volumes.

️ Main Developments: The Blueprint for a Behemoth

China plans to construct five dams along a precipitous segment of the Yarlung Zangbo in Tibet. The first flow of electricity is anticipated in the early-to-mid 2030s. Beyond its staggering cost, the blueprint remains murky—little is known about the precise design, timeline, or environmental safeguards.

Beijing insists the project will deliver clean energy, prevent floods, and support regional development. Yet, no detailed environmental impact assessments or transparent consultations have been publicly shared.

Expert Insight & Regional Reaction: Deepening Unease Downstream

India and Bangladesh have long depended on the Brahmaputra’s steady waters for agriculture, hydropower, and drinking water. The opaque nature of China’s hydropower strategy fuels longstanding fears of water manipulation.

Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu warned earlier this year that the dam could siphon off as much as 80% of the river’s volume before it reaches India—potentially parching the region and inundating low-lying areas like Assam.

Hydrologist Michael Steckler of Columbia University noted an often-overlooked consequence: sediment reduction. “Sediment carried by rivers like the Brahmaputra is crucial for nourishing floodplain agriculture,” he explained. “Dams trap that sediment, degrading downstream fertility.”

Sayanangshu Modak, an India-China water relations expert at the University of Arizona, added, “The concern isn’t just water quantity, but strategic leverage. In a geopolitical standoff, water can be a weapon.”

However, Modak also clarified that fears may be exaggerated. He pointed out that most of the Brahmaputra’s water comes from monsoons south of the Himalayas—not China. Moreover, China claims this is a “run-of-the-river” project, meaning it doesn’t store large water volumes and allows the natural flow to continue.

Impact & Implications: Power for One, Peril for Others?

The stakes aren’t just environmental or economic—they’re geopolitical. India, wary of China’s expanding influence over shared rivers, has proposed its own hydropower behemoths along the Siang River (India’s name for the Yarlung Zangbo), including an 11.5-gigawatt dam that could become the largest in the country.

“These proposals aren’t just about energy,” Modak emphasized. “They’re strategic markers. If India uses these waters, it strengthens its legal and diplomatic position should China ever attempt diversion.”

China, meanwhile, defends the project as an internal affair. Its foreign ministry recently stated, “The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project is a matter of China’s sovereign rights.” The ministry also claimed that Beijing has shared hydrological data with downstream countries and is open to cooperation on flood control and disaster relief.

Safety Concerns: Earthquakes, Landslides, and the Unknown

Beyond diplomacy and resource management, safety looms as a critical issue. The dam site lies in an earthquake-prone region riddled with landslides, glacial lake outbursts, and harsh weather. A devastating quake in Tibet earlier this year rekindled worries about the structural integrity of mega-dams in such volatile terrain.

Nearby smaller projects have already faced massive logistical challenges, with some limited to four-month annual construction windows due to high-altitude engineering risks and extreme winters.

⚖️ Conclusion: Between Progress and Precipice

China’s $170 billion hydropower ambition symbolizes more than just a quest for energy—it’s a testament to the country’s engineering might and a gamble on its geopolitical posture. While it may fuel green energy goals and economic stimulus at home, the project casts a long shadow across South Asia.

Water, once a symbol of life and flow, is increasingly becoming a flashpoint of friction and control. As the Yarlung Zangbo flows south, so do the uncertainties it carries—about safety, sovereignty, and sustainability.

Source:  (Reuters)

(Disclaimer:  This article is based on verified reports and expert commentary as of July 2025. Future developments, official disclosures, and geopolitical dynamics may evolve and change the context or interpretation of the current information.)

 

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